Tue, Mar 28, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Dallas Stars 4, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 114 | 110 | 433 |
| CHI | 04 | 06 | 18 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:45DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jani Hakanpää, Radek Faksa · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 18:59DALColin MillerPPGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 11:24DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Joel Hanley, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–0
- P3 7:04DALLuke GlendeningSHAssists: Ty Dellandrea, Esa Lindell · Snap, 0.21 xG4–0
- P3 10:33CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Jason Dickinson, Wyatt Kaiser · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:00CHIConnor Murphy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 12:45CHIAndreas Athanasiou: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 0:59CHITaylor Raddysh: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:30DALJoel Kiviranta: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:45CHIAlex Stalock: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 16:23CHIAlex Stalock: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 16:29CHIConnor Murphy: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:29DALTy Dellandrea: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Athanasiou won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:33
xG 0.42–0.12 (78%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Domi11:24
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston9:47
xG 0.35–0.38 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Glendening – Dellandrea – Kiviranta8:38
xG 0.16–0.28 (36%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Heiskanen14:20
xG 0.81–0.34 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen2:31
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Hanley11:22
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Bjork – Reichel11:09
xG 0.30–0.18 (63%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Johnson – Dickinson – Raddysh9:18
xG 0.31–0.29 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 1–1
- Anderson – Katchouk – Entwistle3:31
xG 0.02–0.08 (23%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Entwistle – Johnson – Hardman2:38
xG 0.02–0.15 (11%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMitchell – Kaiser2:55
xG 0.42–0.02 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Jones – Mitchell4:45
xG 0.24–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Jones8:56
xG 0.16–0.14 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).