Tue, Mar 28, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 1, Calgary Flames 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 113 | 09 | 011 | 133 |
| CGY | 215 | 013 | 04 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:54CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Mikael Backlund, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.27 xG0–1
- P1 9:24LAKSean DurziAssists: Arthur Kaliyev, Carl Grundstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 17:59CGYWalker DuehrGWGAssists: Trevor Lewis · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 0:52LAKPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:54CGYTrevor Lewis: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 13:28LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Interference2 min
- P2 17:39LAKMatt Roy: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:26CGYTrevor Lewis: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Iafallo – Lizotte5:37
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield12:20
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Fiala – Iafallo – Lizotte3:09
xG 0.06–0.08 (42%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Danault – Arvidsson – Moore4:15
xG 0.08–0.28 (21%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Roy14:52
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Doughty – Durzi2:41
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson17:37
xG 0.73–0.86 (46%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLewis – Lucic – Duehr8:34
xG 1.05–0.45 (70%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Toffoli – Lindholm – Mangiapane10:26
xG 0.71–0.21 (77%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau13:12
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Kadri – Ritchie – Dube9:58
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov18:00
xG 1.28–0.66 (66%)attempts 28–15goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:55
xG 0.63–0.42 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Stecher10:20
xG 0.12–0.46 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).