Wed, Mar 29, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 4, Colorado Avalanche 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 211 | 114 | 14 | 429 |
| COL | 111 | 014 | 119 | 244 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24MINMarcus JohanssonAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Mathew Dumba · Snap, 0.32 xG1–0
- P1 10:43COLBowen ByramAssists: J.T. Compher, Jack Johnson · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 16:02MINSam SteelAssists: John Klingberg, Ryan Hartman · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 9:10MINFrederick GaudreauSHGWGAssists: Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 13:41COLLars EllerAssists: Devon Toews, Samuel Girard · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 19:27MINFrederick GaudreauENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.40 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:28MINAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:34COLBowen Byram: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:12MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Interference2 min
- P1 9:37COLLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:56MINOskar Sundqvist: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:51COLLogan O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48MINJake Middleton: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:08MINJared Spurgeon: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Hartman9:45
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Gaudreau – Steel7:57
xG 0.23–0.40 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:04
xG 0.48–0.91 (35%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba13:51
xG 0.70–0.46 (60%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
- Merrill – Klingberg9:14
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton9:47
xG 0.19–0.98 (16%)attempts 3–24goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rantanen15:12
xG 1.12–0.52 (68%)attempts 28–8goals 0–1
- Eller – Compher – Rodrigues4:11
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor3:56
xG 0.25–0.23 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Nieto – Malgin3:46
xG 0.07–0.12 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:59
xG 0.82–0.47 (64%)attempts 21–10goals 0–1
- Makar – Byram2:56
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:24
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).