Thu, Mar 30, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Ottawa Senators 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 02 | 13 | 36 | 00 | 411 |
| OTT | 117 | 210 | 117 | 12 | 546 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:58OTTAustin WatsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 2:51PHITony DeAngeloPPAssists: Cam York, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 7:43OTTTim StützleAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–2
- P2 16:50OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P3 2:28OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Tim Stützle, Tyler Kleven · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 5:22PHICam YorkUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 9:54PHINoah CatesPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Tony DeAngelo · Deflected, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 17:21PHIOwen TippettAssists: Travis Sanheim, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- OT 1:36OTTAlex DeBrincatGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:10PHIBrendan Lemieux: Boarding2 min
- P2 1:32OTTShane Pinto: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:13OTTAlex DeBrincat: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:13PHIJoel Farabee: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:10OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:10PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:10PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:10OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:10OTTMark Kastelic: Misconduct10 min
- P2 9:10OTTMark Kastelic: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 9:10PHINicolas Deslauriers: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 12:27PHIScott Laughton: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:27OTTErik Brannstrom: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:27PHIKieffer Bellows: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:01PHIIvan Provorov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:43OTTAustin Watson: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stützle won the faceoff against Frost
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Laughton – Allison – Cates8:10
xG 0.21–0.24 (47%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Lemieux9:55
xG 0.42–0.56 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Laughton – Lemieux – Cates3:39
xG 0.11–0.51 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Bellows – Laczynski3:00
xG 0.00–0.50 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – DeAngelo3:04
xG 0.36–0.48 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Seeler – DeAngelo12:05
xG 0.03–0.58 (5%)attempts 2–19goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Sanheim13:32
xG 0.16–0.85 (16%)attempts 4–17goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle14:25
xG 1.76–0.30 (85%)attempts 25–9goals 2–1
- Watson – Brown – Kastelic3:40
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Watson – Brown – Gambrell4:55
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto12:04
xG 0.62–0.56 (53%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom6:17
xG 0.81–0.14 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Sanderson – Zub10:45
xG 0.79–0.13 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Brannstrom – Zub7:08
xG 0.64–0.24 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).