Thu, Mar 30, 2023·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Anaheim Ducks 1, Seattle Kraken 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 08 | 17 | 04 | 119 |
| SEA | 215 | 09 | 215 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:56SEAJaden SchwartzAssists: Will Borgen, Jamie Oleksiak · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 10:37SEAMatty BeniersGWGAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 18:44ANABrock McGinnAssists: Derek Grant, Jakob Silfverberg · Snap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 15:41SEADaniel SprongPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Matty Beniers · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 17:45SEAAlexander WennbergENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:32ANABrett Leason: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:59SEAJamie Oleksiak: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:47SEACarson Soucy: Holding2 min
- P3 14:14ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:05SEAJared McCann: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:05ANAMax Jones: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Grant
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Strome – Vatrano – Comtois14:39
xG 0.73–0.90 (45%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
- Grant – Silfverberg – McGinn9:20
xG 0.10–0.30 (25%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Jones – Leason – McTavish9:37
xG 0.15–0.49 (23%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
- Carrick – Lundeström – Nesterenko6:17
xG 0.00–0.63 (0%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:27
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – Benoit14:23
xG 0.61–0.83 (42%)attempts 14–19goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – White10:59
xG 0.10–0.40 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Wennberg – Geekie11:08
xG 0.84–0.37 (70%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen10:30
xG 0.59–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers11:44
xG 0.56–0.32 (64%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- Donato – Sprong – Tanev5:38
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn19:34
xG 0.88–0.09 (91%)attempts 24–8goals 0–0
- Schultz – Soucy12:34
xG 0.87–0.11 (89%)attempts 23–3goals 1–0
- Oleksiak – Borgen13:25
xG 0.86–0.77 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).