Thu, Mar 30, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Vegas Golden Knights 3, San Jose Sharks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 15 | 14 | 117 | 00 | 326 |
| SJS | 26 | 15 | 013 | 11 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16SJSMario FerraroAssists: Henry Thrun, Thomas Bordeleau · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:31SJSOskar LindblomAssists: Mario Ferraro, Henry Thrun · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P1 16:55VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Ben Hutton · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 1:08VGKIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Nicolas Roy, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P2 11:47SJSTomas HertlAssists: Martin Kaut, Jacob Peterson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 10:07VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–3
- OT 0:50SJSLogan CoutureGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 7:24VGKKeegan Kolesar: Holding2 min
- P1 8:13SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:42VGKKeegan Kolesar: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:26SJSErik Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:49VGKNicolas Roy: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:22SJSJacob MacDonald: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Barbashev – Eichel13:41
xG 1.06–0.48 (69%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Stephenson – Amadio2:22
xG 0.30–0.04 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Amadio8:11
xG 0.20–0.11 (64%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Cotter – Dorofeyev8:12
xG 0.33–0.54 (38%)attempts 3–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinez – Pietrangelo17:21
xG 0.88–0.43 (67%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- McNabb – Whitecloud13:21
xG 0.66–0.58 (53%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
- Hutton – Hague15:49
xG 0.40–0.61 (40%)attempts 7–19goals 2–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLabanc – Gregor – Sturm8:09
xG 0.34–0.29 (54%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Lindblom – Lorentz – Viel3:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Couture – Zetterlund – Bordeleau6:20
xG 0.26–0.34 (44%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Hertl – Peterson – Kaut12:33
xG 0.57–0.80 (41%)attempts 10–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSimek – Thrun10:52
xG 0.39–0.04 (90%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Ferraro – Thrun4:17
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Ferraro11:15
xG 0.46–0.67 (41%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).