Fri, Mar 31, 2023·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Calgary Flames 5, Vancouver Canucks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 011 | 315 | 111 | 14 | 541 |
| VAN | 16 | 36 | 02 | 06 | 420 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30VANConor GarlandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 0:36VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Quinn Hughes, Andrei Kuzmenko · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 2:55CGYTyler ToffoliAssists: Andrew Mangiapane · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 9:00CGYBlake ColemanAssists: Mikael Backlund, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 12:12VANAidan McDonoughAssists: Sheldon Dries, Jack Studnicka · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P2 15:52CGYTroy StecherAssists: Nazem Kadri, Dillon Dube · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 16:06VANAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Nils Aman, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 16:47CGYJonathan HuberdeauPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- OT 3:27CGYTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Mikael Backlund, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.24 xG5–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 9:08VANSheldon Dries: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:04VANAnthony Beauvillier: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 18:50CGYAndrew Mangiapane: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:41CGYMilan Lucic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 13:04VANTyler Myers: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 18:31VANPhillip Di Giuseppe: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:38VANElias Pettersson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:14VANKyle Burroughs: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Miller won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Mangiapane10:55
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Kadri – Ritchie – Dube6:01
xG 0.35–0.07 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau8:01
xG 0.41–0.40 (51%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Duehr5:23
xG 0.06–0.05 (56%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Zadorov15:00
xG 0.44–0.06 (88%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Andersson14:11
xG 0.86–0.54 (61%)attempts 19–9goals 1–1
- Gilbert – Stecher10:04
xG 0.34–0.54 (38%)attempts 10–10goals 2–2
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestStudnicka – Dries – McDonough4:32
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Joshua – Pettersson – Kuzmenko10:32
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Garland – Aman8:25
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 2–13goals 1–1
- Miller – Di Giuseppe – Boeser10:47
xG 0.14–0.56 (20%)attempts 5–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Rathbone7:33
xG 0.34–0.19 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 2–0
- Bear – Hughes12:36
xG 0.41–0.57 (42%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Burroughs – Hughes4:42
xG 0.06–0.25 (20%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).