Sat, Apr 1, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 213 | 215 | 321 | 749 |
| CBJ | 05 | 07 | 09 | 021 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:03FLASam ReinhartPPGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 17:29FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Gustav Forsling, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 0:18FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–0
- P2 6:34FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Brandon Montour, Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 8:34FLANick CousinsAssists: Eric Staal, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–0
- P3 11:18FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Anthony Duclair, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG6–0
- P3 14:16FLAEric StaalAssists: Sam Reinhart, Ryan Lomberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG7–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:26CBJTim Berni: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:50FLAColin White: Holding2 min
- P2 8:29FLAEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:46FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:59CBJJosh Dunne: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:57CBJJosh Dunne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:47FLAGivani Smith: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuraly won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDuclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov8:22
xG 1.22–0.14 (90%)attempts 19–6goals 4–0
- Staal – Reinhart – Lomberg10:41
xG 1.11–0.07 (94%)attempts 23–6goals 1–0
- Cousins – White – Smith8:28
xG 0.29–0.14 (68%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Luostarinen – Lundell8:49
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkblad – Forsling14:57
xG 1.52–0.49 (75%)attempts 29–11goals 2–0
- Staal – Montour11:43
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 3–0
- Gudas – Mahura13:55
xG 0.89–0.30 (75%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestLuoto – Dunne – McKown8:21
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko12:48
xG 0.48–0.80 (37%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
- Kuraly – Robinson – Foudy6:37
xG 0.24–1.01 (19%)attempts 6–16goals 0–3
- Bemstrom – Richards – Johnson7:54
xG 0.10–1.02 (9%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Christiansen – Bjork10:02
xG 0.47–0.49 (49%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Bayreuther – Sweezey13:05
xG 0.21–0.46 (32%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
- Berni – Bjork4:46
xG 0.00–0.46 (0%)attempts 4–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).