Sat, Apr 1, 2023·United Center, Chicago
New Jersey Devils 6, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 010 | 316 | 314 | 640 |
| CHI | 04 | 29 | 14 | 317 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:19NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jack Hughes · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 7:45CHITyler JohnsonAssists: Taylor Raddysh, Jason Dickinson · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 13:58CHILukas ReichelAssists: Andreas Athanasiou, Taylor Raddysh · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 15:31NJDErik HaulaAssists: Timo Meier, Dougie Hamilton · Snap, 0.27 xG2–2
- P2 18:28NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Jack Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 5:17NJDRyan GravesGWGAssists: Erik Haula, Jesper Boqvist · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 9:03CHIAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Jonathan Toews, Nikita Zaitsev · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 16:04NJDTimo MeierAssists: Damon Severson · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG5–3
- P3 17:58NJDDawson MercerENAssists: Nico Hischier, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.80 xG6–3
Penalties (2)
- P1 13:04NJDDougie Hamilton: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:18CHINikita Zaitsev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestWood – McLeod – Sharangovich10:51
xG 0.63–0.22 (74%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer8:09
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–4goals 0–1
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer3:55
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes11:40
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Marino15:58
xG 0.95–0.14 (87%)attempts 19–4goals 3–1
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler15:22
xG 0.96–0.41 (70%)attempts 21–11goals 1–1
- Severson – Bahl15:27
xG 0.62–0.31 (67%)attempts 18–4goals 1–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Athanasiou – Reichel2:31
xG 0.14–0.01 (90%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Bjork – Wagner – Johnson3:24
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Johnson – Dickinson – Raddysh11:24
xG 0.43–0.52 (45%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Athanasiou – Bjork – Reichel8:53
xG 0.24–0.46 (34%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Jones6:36
xG 0.14–0.05 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Zaitsev – Vlasic2:03
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Jones – Zaitsev6:33
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).