Sat, Apr 1, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Dallas Stars 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 010 | 17 | 111 | 228 |
| COL | 19 | 211 | 212 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:54COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 6:04COLLogan O'ConnorAssists: Andrew Cogliano · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 11:54DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 19:47COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P3 16:52COLValeri NichushkinENAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.80 xG1–4
- P3 18:44DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Jason Robertson, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:48COLMikko RantanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.49 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:27COLBowen Byram: Holding2 min
- P1 19:31COLMikko Rantanen: Boarding2 min
- P2 3:20DALJani Hakanpää: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:04COLJ.T. Compher: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P2 16:02COLJ.T. Compher: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:54DALEvgenii Dadonov: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 3:41DALJani Hakanpää: Holding2 min
- P3 18:15COLBowen Byram: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson10:13
xG 0.52–0.36 (59%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta7:32
xG 0.17–0.12 (59%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Seguin – Domi – Dellandrea10:00
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston8:25
xG 0.21–0.63 (25%)attempts 8–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell12:21
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Miller – Hanley6:50
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Lindell3:06
xG 0.02–0.05 (22%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues12:28
xG 0.75–0.62 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Eller – Nieto – Malgin7:47
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Helm – O'Connor3:39
xG 0.10–0.17 (36%)attempts 1–6goals 1–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Newhook7:42
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar11:47
xG 0.59–0.19 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Johnson – Johnson8:15
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Girard – Byram14:20
xG 0.21–0.82 (20%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).