Sat, Apr 1, 2023·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 0, Edmonton Oilers 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 017 | 09 | 010 | 036 |
| EDM | 110 | 324 | 211 | 645 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:56EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 2:03EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Evander Kane · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 5:05EDMDarnell NurseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 11:44EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Zach Hyman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P3 4:25EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–5
- P3 15:01EDMLeon DraisaitlSHAssists: Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.12 xG0–6
Penalties (8)
- P1 14:05ANAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P1 14:05ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:05EDMEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:45ANAFrank Vatrano: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P2 14:18EDMConnor McDavid: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:47EDMDarnell Nurse: Holding2 min
- P3 13:41EDMWarren Foegele: Interference2 min
- P3 19:34ANAMason McTavish: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Zegras
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGrant – McGinn – Megna7:26
xG 0.65–0.26 (72%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Silfverberg – Lundeström – Nesterenko8:03
xG 0.39–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras12:11
xG 1.23–1.31 (48%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Jones – Comtois – McTavish6:58
xG 0.18–0.69 (21%)attempts 4–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Benoit14:53
xG 1.26–1.02 (55%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
- Harrington – Benoit2:57
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Fowler – Harrington15:34
xG 0.51–0.65 (44%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestKane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto11:36
xG 1.46–0.91 (62%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid2:19
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid10:16
xG 0.66–0.45 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Shore – Ryan – Kostin8:30
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:20
xG 1.12–0.50 (69%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Ceci – Nurse15:20
xG 1.43–1.33 (52%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Nurse – Desharnais2:00
xG 0.17–0.09 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).