Sat, Apr 1, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Minnesota Wild 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 113 | 013 | 04 | 130 |
| VGK | 28 | 114 | 121 | 443 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:00MINMatt BoldyAssists: John Klingberg, Joel Eriksson Ek · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 9:55VGKBen HuttonAssists: Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P1 16:13VGKZach WhitecloudGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 2:21VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 18:46VGKChandler StephensonENAssists: Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.77 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:09VGKJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:36VGKWilliam Karlsson: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:36MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:23MINRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:29MINJake Middleton: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:00VGKNicolas Roy: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eriksson Ek won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy11:29
xG 0.58–0.65 (47%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Foligno – Zuccarello – Hartman9:39
xG 0.37–0.47 (44%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Gaudreau – Duhaime5:06
xG 0.01–0.24 (2%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar4:14
xG 0.07–0.72 (9%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Middleton13:30
xG 0.47–0.44 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba16:32
xG 0.69–0.89 (44%)attempts 24–16goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg12:10
xG 0.50–0.87 (37%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Kolesar – Cotter6:25
xG 1.07–0.23 (82%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Kessel – Amadio – Howden5:05
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Stephenson – Roy6:07
xG 0.49–0.39 (56%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Amadio2:33
xG 0.18–0.10 (64%)attempts 4–1goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Hague14:18
xG 1.48–0.39 (79%)attempts 23–16goals 0–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud12:13
xG 0.75–0.55 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:29
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).