Sun, Apr 2, 2023·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 311 | 08 | 08 | 00 | 327 |
| CBJ | 26 | 07 | 18 | 11 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:41CBJKent JohnsonPPAssists: Gavin Bayreuther, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 4:00OTTDylan GambrellAssists: Erik Brannstrom · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 4:05CBJEric RobinsonAssists: Emil Bemstrom, Justin Richards · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P1 9:26OTTMark KastelicAssists: Tyler Kleven · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P1 14:46OTTAlex DeBrincatAssists: Ridly Greig · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 14:11CBJBoone JennerAssists: Kirill Marchenko, Billy Sweezey · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 0:16CBJKirill MarchenkoGWGAssists: Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:47OTTMathieu Joseph: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:37CBJBoone Jenner: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:08CBJMarcus Bjork: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:58OTTRidly Greig: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jenner won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto3:56
xG 0.50–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Joseph – Gambrell – Pinto6:06
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Greig7:37
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Watson – Brown – Kastelic7:31
xG 0.34–0.35 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Kleven14:27
xG 0.99–0.19 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Holden – Brannstrom14:25
xG 0.46–0.40 (54%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- Sanderson – Zub16:16
xG 0.55–0.77 (42%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko15:52
xG 0.69–0.58 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Bemstrom – Robinson – Richards5:25
xG 0.08–0.13 (40%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Kuraly – Foudy – Johnson11:08
xG 0.28–0.39 (42%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Luoto – Dunne – McKown4:10
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestChristiansen – Bjork14:02
xG 0.60–0.32 (65%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Peeke – Bayreuther18:47
xG 0.47–0.79 (37%)attempts 13–21goals 1–1
- Berni – Sweezey14:13
xG 0.31–0.86 (27%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).