Sun, Apr 2, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 013 | 213 | 233 |
| PIT | 215 | 110 | 16 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:40PITRickard RakellAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 14:53PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 13:23PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jeff Petry · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 5:57PHINicolas DeslauriersAssists: Tony DeAngelo, James van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 17:31PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Morgan Frost, Joel Farabee · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:48PITRyan PoehlingENAssists: Mikael Granlund, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.79 xG2–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:00PITMikael Granlund: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:00PHICam York: Embellishment2 min
- P1 13:25PHITravis Sanheim: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:18PHITravis Sanheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:31PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:31PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:23PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:45PHINoah Cates: Interference2 min
- P3 1:49PITEvgeni Malkin: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:49PITEvgeni Malkin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 1:49PITEvgeni Malkin: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:33PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:25PITRyan Poehling: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:25PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:50PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Tippett – Frost3:42
xG 0.34–0.14 (71%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Tippett – Frost – Farabee6:08
xG 0.28–0.22 (57%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Bellows3:31
xG 0.15–0.14 (50%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Konecny – Allison – Cates5:07
xG 0.28–0.31 (47%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeAngelo – Provorov3:09
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Seeler – DeAngelo6:01
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
- Braun – Sanheim7:55
xG 0.54–0.61 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel12:09
xG 0.98–0.63 (61%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Granlund – Heinen – Poehling3:58
xG 0.22–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Zucker – Granlund – Rakell2:06
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell7:33
xG 0.18–0.27 (41%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Ruhwedel – Friedman9:00
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Petry – Joseph8:35
xG 0.55–0.75 (42%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
- Letang – Dumoulin15:17
xG 0.78–1.00 (44%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).