Sun, Apr 2, 2023·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 4, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 29 | 29 | 04 | 422 |
| CGY | 09 | 319 | 213 | 541 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Trevor Zegras, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 17:50ANAMaxime ComtoisAssists: Frank Vatrano, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P2 0:33CGYAndrew MangiapanePPAssists: Tyler Toffoli, Rasmus Andersson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 7:12CGYNikita ZadorovAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 8:18CGYNick RitchieAssists: Troy Stecher, Nazem Kadri · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 9:16ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Sam Carrick, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P2 12:56ANAScott HarringtonAssists: Sam Carrick, Maxime Comtois · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 6:26CGYMilan LucicAssists: Blake Coleman, MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–4
- P3 17:22CGYMichael StoneGWGAssists: Nick Ritchie, Nazem Kadri · Slap, 0.05 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:50CGYBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:06ANAColton White: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:59ANABrett Leason: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grant won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Jones – Leason – McTavish9:59
xG 0.36–0.53 (41%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – McGinn8:20
xG 0.10–0.47 (17%)attempts 4–9goals 0–3
- Carrick – Comtois – Lundeström11:48
xG 0.16–0.83 (16%)attempts 7–21goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras13:40
xG 0.39–1.06 (27%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Shattenkirk – Benoit14:28
xG 0.51–0.47 (52%)attempts 8–13goals 1–2
- Beaulieu – White10:45
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Fowler3:17
xG 0.23–0.28 (45%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Lindholm – Dube8:27
xG 1.25–0.05 (96%)attempts 22–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Ritchie – Mangiapane7:03
xG 0.43–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–4goals 2–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Huberdeau8:34
xG 0.49–0.29 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Backlund – Huberdeau – Duehr4:41
xG 0.22–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Stecher12:35
xG 0.95–0.34 (74%)attempts 17–8goals 2–1
- Hanifin – Andersson18:37
xG 1.18–0.59 (67%)attempts 26–13goals 0–1
- Weegar – Zadorov17:16
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 25–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).