Mon, Apr 3, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Minnesota Wild 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 18 | 19 | 18 | 01 | 3 | 426 |
| MIN | 012 | 311 | 08 | 02 | 2 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:59VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Ben Hutton, Teddy Blueger · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 3:36MINBrandon DuhaimeAssists: Ryan Reaves, Connor Dewar · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 13:57MINJohn KlingbergPPAssists: Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello · Snap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 16:34VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 19:19MINMatt BoldyAssists: Joel Eriksson Ek, Marcus Johansson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 19:25VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: William Karlsson, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.26 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. MIN Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 2. VGK Jack Eichel scored
- 3. MIN Frederick Gaudreau scored
- 4. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 5. MIN Matt Boldy stopped
- 6. VGK Nicolas Roy stopped
- 7. MIN Joel Eriksson Ek scored
- 8. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev scored
- 9. MIN Ryan Hartman stopped
- 10. VGK Reilly Smith scored
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:33MINSam Steel: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:49MINJon Merrill: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:49VGKBrett Howden: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:14MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:14MINJoel Eriksson Ek: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:14VGKBrett Howden: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:33VGKWilliam Karlsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:23VGKAlec Martinez: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:23MINJared Spurgeon: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Roy – Howden9:22
xG 0.36–0.10 (78%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
- Blueger – Amadio – Kolesar7:59
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Smith – Karlsson – Dorofeyev9:28
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Marchessault – Barbashev – Eichel11:22
xG 0.10–0.59 (15%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McNabb – Whitecloud16:21
xG 0.45–0.59 (43%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
- Hutton – Hague11:34
xG 0.18–0.43 (29%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Martinez – Pietrangelo14:25
xG 0.09–0.59 (13%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Duhaime – Dewar6:53
xG 0.29–0.08 (79%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Boldy2:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Steel10:50
xG 0.49–0.40 (55%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Johansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy9:24
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton16:39
xG 0.51–0.26 (67%)attempts 18–20goals 0–2
- Brodin – Dumba14:46
xG 0.29–0.09 (76%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Merrill – Klingberg11:53
xG 0.24–0.42 (37%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).