Mon, Apr 3, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 1, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 010 | 09 | 18 | 127 |
| DAL | 110 | 26 | 210 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:21DALRoope HintzAssists: Jason Robertson, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 12:31DALColin MillerGWGAssists: Radek Faksa, Luke Glendening · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 16:07DALJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–3
- P3 8:29DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 14:23DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jason Robertson, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 15:10NSHCal FooteUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P2 0:39DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:37NSHKevin Gravel: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:39NSHJohn Leonard: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:37NSHTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:24NSHDante Fabbro: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:24NSHMark Jankowski: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:24DALColin Miller: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:38DALThomas Harley: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnston won the faceoff against Sissons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – McCarron – Asplund3:37
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Asplund6:00
xG 0.17–0.34 (33%)attempts 4–6goals 0–2
- Sissons – Trenin – Leonard3:46
xG 0.06–0.27 (17%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Jankowski – McCarron – Leonard3:59
xG 0.00–0.34 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Fabbro14:52
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 13–12goals 0–2
- Gravel – Foote13:24
xG 0.27–0.67 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Barrie – Stastney14:34
xG 0.14–1.15 (11%)attempts 7–16goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestPavelski – Hintz – Robertson8:28
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston11:05
xG 0.51–0.16 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Seguin – Domi – Dellandrea9:28
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Olofsson11:05
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen14:02
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Hakanpää – Lindell14:48
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Harley11:26
xG 0.67–0.33 (67%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).