Tue, Apr 4, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 012 | 19 | 226 |
| TOR | 116 | 117 | 217 | 450 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:10TORZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Justin Holl, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:22CBJJack RoslovicAssists: Kent Johnson, Liam Foudy · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 7:25TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Nick Abruzzese, David Kampf · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–2
- P3 8:11TORZachary Aston-ReeseGWGAssists: Jake McCabe, Sam Lafferty · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 12:03CBJEric RobinsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 18:57TORAuston MatthewsENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:03CBJSean Kuraly: Holding2 min
- P1 14:33TORJake McCabe: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:13CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P2 17:17TORAlexander Kerfoot: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:42CBJGavin Bayreuther: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Kuraly – Robinson – Foudy2:06
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Jenner – Marchenko15:02
xG 0.69–0.92 (43%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Kuraly – Bemstrom – Robinson10:35
xG 0.12–0.56 (17%)attempts 8–18goals 0–1
- Luoto – Dunne – McKown6:25
xG 0.18–0.78 (19%)attempts 5–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Peeke – Bayreuther15:50
xG 0.48–0.69 (41%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Boqvist – Berni15:13
xG 0.89–1.36 (40%)attempts 18–17goals 1–2
- Sweezey – Bjork10:20
xG 0.13–1.47 (8%)attempts 5–19goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Bunting – Matthews8:52
xG 0.94–0.31 (75%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Tavares – Nylander – Marner10:05
xG 0.75–0.18 (81%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Aston-Reese – Kampf10:16
xG 0.55–0.52 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 2–1
- Kerfoot – Acciari – Abruzzese7:24
xG 0.20–0.30 (41%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly13:54
xG 1.43–0.34 (81%)attempts 24–5goals 1–1
- Holl – McCabe14:45
xG 1.02–0.35 (74%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Giordano – Liljegren12:50
xG 1.17–0.64 (65%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).