Tue, Apr 4, 2023·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Ottawa Senators 2, Carolina Hurricanes 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 19 | 19 | 00 | 228 |
| CAR | 212 | 013 | 010 | 12 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:50CARJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Brady Skjei, Stefan Noesen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:58CARBrady SkjeiPPAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 10:39OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Ridly Greig, Alex DeBrincat · Snap, 0.20 xG1–2
- P3 2:52OTTBrady TkachukPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Drake Batherson · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–2
- OT 4:19CARMartin NecasGWGAssists: Seth Jarvis, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:12OTTPatrick Brown: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 15:58OTTBrady Tkachuk: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P1 18:21CARBrett Pesce: Interference2 min
- P2 1:35CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:58CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:48OTTClaude Giroux: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:58OTTJake Sanderson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:28CARJesper Fast: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Kastelic
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle11:16
xG 0.79–0.42 (65%)attempts 20–8goals 0–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Greig9:07
xG 0.60–0.28 (68%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Joseph – Sokolov – Pinto3:36
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Watson – Brown – Pinto2:22
xG 0.15–0.16 (48%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBernard-Docker – Kleven10:46
xG 0.78–0.26 (75%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Holden – Brannstrom12:29
xG 0.74–0.51 (59%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Sanderson – Zub16:45
xG 0.68–0.54 (55%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Drury8:12
xG 0.63–0.44 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook3:08
xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Aho – Necas – Jarvis4:38
xG 0.06–0.01 (88%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Martinook – Aho – Necas6:18
xG 0.26–0.53 (33%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Slavin15:20
xG 0.75–0.77 (49%)attempts 19–17goals 0–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:16
xG 0.84–1.12 (43%)attempts 19–19goals 1–1
- Gostisbehere – Chatfield10:16
xG 0.11–0.42 (21%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).