Tue, Apr 4, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 09 | 06 | 18 | 123 |
| NJD | 28 | 218 | 111 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:58NJDDougie HamiltonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jesper Bratt · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:23NJDDawson MercerGWGAssists: Nico Hischier, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 2:54NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Jack Hughes, Dougie Hamilton · Tip-in, 0.21 xG0–3
- P2 19:26NJDDawson MercerAssists: John Marino, Ryan Graves · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–4
- P3 2:52NJDDawson MercerAssists: Nico Hischier, Michael McLeod · Snap, 0.31 xG0–5
- P3 6:14PITBryan RustAssists: Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:30NJDMiles Wood: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:48NJDTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:03PITJason Zucker: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:36PITJeff Petry: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 4:41NJDTomas Tatar: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 7:45PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:04NJDKevin Bahl: Interference2 min
- P3 16:58PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hischier won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Heinen – Poehling7:26
xG 0.32–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell8:46
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – O'Connor4:38
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel9:58
xG 0.32–0.86 (27%)attempts 10–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Dumoulin – Friedman2:02
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Ruhwedel – Friedman10:57
xG 0.15–0.23 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Petry – Joseph12:06
xG 0.60–1.01 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes10:09
xG 1.00–0.27 (79%)attempts 17–4goals 1–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer9:21
xG 0.56–0.16 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Wood – Bastian – McLeod5:57
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Haula – Meier – Boqvist8:31
xG 0.04–0.52 (8%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Marino10:44
xG 0.97–0.20 (83%)attempts 12–9goals 3–1
- Severson – Siegenthaler12:56
xG 0.59–0.38 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Hamilton – Bahl13:15
xG 0.75–0.59 (56%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).