Tue, Apr 4, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 4, San Jose Sharks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 119 | 08 | 12 | 442 |
| SJS | 07 | 111 | 29 | 04 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29COLJack JohnsonAssists: Bowen Byram, Denis Malgin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 6:24COLEvan RodriguesAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Mikko Rantanen · Backhand, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 12:55SJSKevin LabancAssists: Logan Couture, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 17:54COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Devon Toews · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 5:50SJSJacob PetersonPPAssists: Danil Gushchin, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–2
- P3 7:11SJSKevin LabancAssists: Noah Gregor, Jacob MacDonald · Snap, 0.21 xG3–3
- OT 3:13COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Devon Toews · Snap, 0.35 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:54SJSJacob MacDonald: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:39SJSTomas Hertl: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 1:20SJSNico Sturm: Holding2 min
- P3 4:59COLKurtis MacDermid: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hertl won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues13:55
xG 0.84–0.18 (83%)attempts 20–6goals 1–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Malgin9:00
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Rodrigues – Malgin – Newhook2:36
xG 0.29–0.09 (75%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor3:40
xG 0.13–0.35 (26%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Byram9:21
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard10:26
xG 0.85–0.33 (72%)attempts 14–7goals 2–1
- Toews – Byram6:55
xG 0.35–0.15 (69%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Peterson – Gushchin2:27
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Gushchin – Bordeleau2:06
xG 0.01–0.07 (11%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Labanc – Svechnikov – Sturm5:49
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Hertl – Peterson – Gushchin3:14
xG 0.05–0.26 (15%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSimek – Thrun8:05
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 1–2
- Benning – Ferraro9:59
xG 0.30–0.62 (32%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson14:55
xG 0.35–1.23 (22%)attempts 10–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).