Thu, Apr 6, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Minnesota Wild 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 05 | 013 | 110 | 128 |
| PIT | 119 | 15 | 27 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:02PITKris LetangAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 10:53PITRickard RakellPPGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 2:58PITJason ZuckerAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Rickard Rakell · Slap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 7:39MINMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Matt Boldy · Wrap-around, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 13:08PITJeff CarterAssists: Drew O'Connor, Brian Dumoulin · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 15:31MINMathew Dumba: Interference2 min
- P2 3:47MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min
- P2 8:18PITJosh Archibald: Interference2 min
- P2 10:35MINJonas Brodin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 12:35PITJake Guentzel: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:13PITJason Zucker: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:48PITJeff Petry: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:21PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P3 15:32MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Eriksson Ek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Eriksson Ek – Boldy5:03
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Johansson – Steel – Boldy3:07
xG 0.04–0.09 (35%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar7:34
xG 0.25–0.34 (42%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Foligno – Sundqvist – Gaudreau5:21
xG 0.02–0.15 (12%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Middleton2:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dumba – Middleton2:14
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Middleton11:46
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestGranlund – Heinen – Poehling6:30
xG 0.42–0.18 (70%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – O'Connor5:07
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell10:33
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 1–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel12:01
xG 0.50–0.66 (43%)attempts 14–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFriedman – Rutta8:13
xG 0.42–0.15 (74%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin13:57
xG 0.64–0.44 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 2–0
- Petry – Joseph12:24
xG 0.45–0.32 (58%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).