Thu, Apr 6, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Ottawa Senators 2, Florida Panthers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 022 | 119 | 117 | 258 |
| FLA | 210 | 512 | 08 | 730 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:59FLABrandon MontourAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 14:03FLAAleksander BarkovPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 1:24FLAAleksander BarkovSHGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Gustav Forsling · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 4:25OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Drake Batherson · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 7:48FLASam ReinhartPPAssists: Brandon Montour, Aleksander Barkov · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–4
- P2 9:25FLAEetu LuostarinenPPAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.33 xG1–5
- P2 15:38FLANick CousinsAssists: Aaron Ekblad, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–6
- P2 17:00FLAGustav ForslingUnassisted · Slap, 0.04 xG1–7
- P3 16:19OTTRidly GreigAssists: Patrick Brown, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.23 xG2–7
Penalties (36)
- P1 2:56OTTMark Kastelic: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:56FLAGivani Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:54OTTErik Brannstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:22FLAGivani Smith: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:24FLACarter Verhaeghe: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:13FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:13OTTJake Sanderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:31OTTPatrick Brown: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
- P2 6:31OTTPatrick Brown: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 6:31FLARadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:31OTTAustin Watson: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:24OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:24FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:24OTTDrake Batherson: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:24OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:24FLAMarc Staal: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:24FLAMarc Staal: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 8:24OTTBrady Tkachuk: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 13:27FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:27FLANick Cousins: Holding2 min
- P2 18:44FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:16FLAColin White: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:25OTTArtem Zub: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:25FLAGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:25FLAGivani Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:25OTTMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:25OTTMark Kastelic: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:03OTTAlex DeBrincat: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03OTTAlex DeBrincat: Misconduct10 min
- P3 12:03FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:08OTT: Game misconduct head coach0 min
- P3 13:08OTTEgor Sokolov: Bench2 min
- P3 16:19FLAGivani Smith: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:36OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:36FLAJosh Mahura: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:36OTTPatrick Brown: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kastelic won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Greig5:38
xG 0.58–0.11 (84%)attempts 7–3goals 0–1
- Watson – Brown – Kastelic3:17
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle5:12
xG 0.26–0.18 (60%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Joseph – Sokolov – Pinto3:24
xG 0.13–0.09 (60%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom11:39
xG 0.97–0.25 (79%)attempts 24–8goals 0–1
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven9:25
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- Sanderson – Zub11:54
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Staal – Duclair – Lomberg3:35
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Reinhart – Lomberg5:50
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Luostarinen – Lundell6:59
xG 0.14–0.43 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Duclair – Verhaeghe – Barkov5:32
xG 0.05–0.54 (8%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Montour – Mahura2:48
xG 0.11–0.08 (59%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling4:33
xG 0.02–0.12 (15%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Mahura3:15
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).