Thu, Apr 6, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Boston Bruins 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 07 | 115 | 010 | 00 | 132 |
| BOS | 011 | 011 | 18 | 13 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:34TORSam LaffertyAssists: Zachary Aston-Reese · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P3 11:32BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Brandon Carlo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- OT 2:30BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 11:33BOSCharlie McAvoy: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:33BOSA.J. Greer: Instigator2 min
- P1 14:33TORSam Lafferty: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:33BOSA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:33BOSA.J. Greer: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:43TORAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:32TORLuke Schenn: Kneeing2 min
- P3 4:52BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P3 8:16TORJake McCabe: Tripping2 min
- OT 0:24TORMorgan Rielly: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nosek won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Bunting – Matthews9:28
xG 0.65–0.29 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Marner5:29
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Kerfoot – Acciari7:07
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Aston-Reese – Kampf10:23
xG 0.26–0.40 (40%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – McCabe13:39
xG 0.97–0.58 (63%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Holl – McCabe2:14
xG 0.34–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Giordano – Holl10:50
xG 0.37–0.05 (88%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Greer – Steen3:22
xG 0.23–0.03 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Coyle – Hathaway – Frederic6:04
xG 0.29–0.20 (58%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Coyle – Frederic – Steen2:25
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Pastrnak – Zacha7:48
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – McAvoy8:26
xG 0.42–0.25 (62%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Orlov – Lindholm2:48
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Orlov – Clifton5:47
xG 0.07–0.12 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).