Thu, Apr 6, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Washington Capitals 2, Montréal Canadiens 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 16 | 08 | 112 | 226 |
| MTL | 013 | 412 | 27 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:30WSHDylan StromeAssists: Nick Jensen, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 3:42MTLNick SuzukiSHAssists: Joel Edmundson, Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 7:52MTLJoel ArmiaSHAssists: Mike Matheson, Jake Evans · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:23MTLBrendan GallagherGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 11:15MTLJoel ArmiaAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Slap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 14:27WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
- P3 16:58MTLJoel ArmiaENAssists: Rafael Harvey-Pinard · Wrist, 0.74 xG2–5
- P3 19:42MTLMike HoffmanAssists: Jake Evans · Snap, 0.09 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 10:27WSHTom Wilson: Instigator2 min
- P1 10:27WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:27WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P1 10:27MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:26MTLRem Pitlick: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 2:25MTLMichael Pezzetta: Interference2 min
- P2 6:59MTLJoel Edmundson: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:43WSHSonny Milano: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:45WSHSonny Milano: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:02MTLChris Wideman: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:10MTLBrendan Gallagher: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Evans won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBackstrom – Milano – Protas5:21
xG 0.51–0.12 (81%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Dowd – Sheary – Protas6:14
xG 0.38–0.11 (78%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Wilson – Strome6:02
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Smith – Kuznetsov – Sheary4:43
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Fehérváry9:26
xG 0.82–0.25 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Jensen – Sandin7:45
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin4:39
xG 0.24–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGallagher – Drouin – Gurianov8:00
xG 0.52–0.14 (79%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Tierney – Pezzetta – Ylonen6:22
xG 0.30–0.10 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Armia – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard7:36
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Hoffman – Evans – Pitlick11:03
xG 0.31–1.05 (23%)attempts 8–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Schueneman6:04
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Kovacevic4:41
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Wideman – Schueneman4:18
xG 0.10–0.24 (30%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).