Thu, Apr 6, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 07 | 111 | 07 | 125 |
| DAL | 18 | 316 | 06 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:58DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:04DALJoe PavelskiPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Miro Heiskanen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 8:53DALColin MillerAssists: Wyatt Johnston, Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 10:55DALJason RobertsonAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–4
- P2 13:16PHIKevin HayesAssists: Owen Tippett, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.07 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:41DALMiro Heiskanen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:20DALRyan Suter: Interference2 min
- P1 18:51PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 0:50PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 9:28PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:28PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:28DALLuke Glendening: Interference2 min
- P3 9:28DALLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cates won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Tippett – Cates8:14
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Konecny2:57
xG 0.11–0.09 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Allison – Frost – Farabee3:00
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Konecny – Tippett – Cates6:22
xG 0.19–0.19 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeeler – Attard13:54
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov11:53
xG 0.51–0.44 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Provorov – York6:06
xG 0.18–0.12 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestGlendening – Faksa – Olofsson9:23
xG 0.53–0.18 (75%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Pavelski – Seguin – Robertson11:48
xG 0.43–0.16 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Domi – Dellandrea – Kiviranta11:41
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston11:04
xG 0.37–0.58 (39%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHakanpää – Lindell14:36
xG 0.93–0.31 (75%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen17:43
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- Miller – Harley13:36
xG 0.35–0.74 (32%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).