Thu, Apr 6, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 2, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 011 | 29 | 012 | 232 |
| VGK | 413 | 114 | 010 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54VGKPhil KesselAssists: Chandler Stephenson, Ivan Barbashev · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 3:56VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 6:07VGKChandler StephensonGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Zach Whitecloud · Backhand, 0.52 xG0–3
- P1 11:23VGKNicolas RoyPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–4
- P2 1:02VGKJonathan MarchessaultUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 11:24LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Adrian Kempe, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–5
- P2 14:10LAKVladislav GavrikovSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:28LAKZack MacEwen: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 8:28VGKNicolas Hague: Instigator2 min
- P1 8:28LAKZack MacEwen: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:28VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:28VGKNicolas Hague: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 10:55VGKIvan Barbashev: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09LAKSean Durzi: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:48LAKArthur Kaliyev: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roy won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestMacEwen – Kupari – Lizotte6:03
xG 0.64–0.45 (59%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Grundstrom3:17
xG 0.14–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kaliyev6:02
xG 0.31–0.26 (54%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Byfield2:09
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Walker – Bjornfot4:20
xG 0.03–0.08 (29%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Roy – Durzi15:29
xG 0.73–0.79 (48%)attempts 24–12goals 0–2
- Doughty – Bjornfot12:23
xG 0.31–0.45 (40%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Eichel – Dorofeyev12:05
xG 0.83–0.36 (70%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio10:18
xG 0.56–0.10 (84%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Roy – Howden10:34
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Barbashev9:18
xG 0.87–0.68 (56%)attempts 10–19goals 3–0
Defence pairs
- bestHutton – Hague9:51
xG 0.53–0.16 (77%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- McNabb – Whitecloud17:21
xG 0.94–0.76 (55%)attempts 14–25goals 1–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo14:20
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 14–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).