Thu, Apr 6, 2023·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 6, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 415 | 19 | 631 |
| SJS | 16 | 18 | 09 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:43SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Kevin Labanc, Jacob Peterson · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 16:45COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 2:32COLMikko RantanenAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Nathan MacKinnon · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 7:19COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Samuel Girard, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 8:06COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.23 xG4–1
- P2 8:41SJSSteven LorentzAssists: Erik Karlsson, Jacob MacDonald · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P2 15:08COLBen MeyersAssists: Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–2
- P3 3:12COLBen MeyersAssists: Alex Newhook, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.18 xG6–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 2:54SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:08COLLars Eller: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestNieto – Newhook – Meyers5:14
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues14:24
xG 0.91–0.65 (58%)attempts 15–17goals 4–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Malgin9:38
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Eller – O'Connor5:50
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard16:34
xG 1.27–0.36 (78%)attempts 19–14goals 5–0
- Johnson – Johnson3:04
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Byram5:31
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- Couture – Gregor – Bordeleau11:21
xG 0.59–0.84 (41%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Hertl – Labanc – Peterson15:22
xG 0.49–0.91 (35%)attempts 21–15goals 1–3
- Svechnikov – Zetterlund – Sturm9:53
xG 0.55–1.10 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Ferraro2:07
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Karlsson13:20
xG 0.76–0.73 (51%)attempts 19–9goals 1–2
- Simek – Thrun7:45
xG 0.09–0.48 (15%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).