Sat, Apr 8, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 3, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 118 | 010 | 212 | 340 |
| MIN | 28 | 212 | 110 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:19STLSammy BlaisAssists: Justin Faulk, Jakub Vrana · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 11:17MINRyan HartmanSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 11:37MINSam SteelSHAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 14:27MINFrederick GaudreauPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 19:25MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Sam Steel · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 1:11STLJake NeighboursAssists: Brayden Schenn, Justin Faulk · Snap, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 7:51STLPavel BuchnevichAssists: Nick Leddy, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 18:07MINJonas BrodinENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:53MINMarcus Foligno: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:27STLDmitri Samorukov: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:25STLJustin Faulk: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:10STLKasperi Kapanen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:40STLJordan Kyrou: High sticking2 min
- P3 11:18MINMarcus Foligno: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Hartman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPitlick – Walker – Toropchenko6:19
xG 0.77–0.01 (99%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Schenn – Saad – Neighbours4:04
xG 0.57–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Neighbours6:22
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kapanen – Blais4:33
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Krug13:24
xG 0.94–0.42 (69%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Samorukov – Rosen9:45
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Leddy – Parayko14:09
xG 0.85–0.86 (50%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestReaves – Duhaime – Dewar8:17
xG 0.53–0.35 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov11:08
xG 0.48–0.62 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Foligno – Steel8:47
xG 0.13–0.69 (15%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Johansson – Gaudreau – Boldy9:58
xG 0.11–0.74 (13%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton13:45
xG 0.53–0.44 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Dumba – Middleton2:06
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brodin – Dumba14:31
xG 1.01–0.98 (51%)attempts 13–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).