Sat, Apr 8, 2023·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 1, Toronto Maple Leafs 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 01 | 114 | 06 | 121 |
| TOR | 218 | 216 | 312 | 746 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:08TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 15:16TORJohn TavaresPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
- P2 2:28MTLJohnathan KovacevicAssists: Mike Matheson, Nick Suzuki · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 3:56TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 4:52TORMitch MarnerAssists: Michael Bunting, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 6:01TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Erik Gustafsson · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 13:51TORAuston MatthewsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
- P3 16:50TORMichael BuntingPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Erik Gustafsson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–7
Penalties (16)
- P1 1:34MTLJake Evans: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:39MTLJustin Barron: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:30MTLChris Wideman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 15:19TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:19MTLMichael Pezzetta: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:53TORMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 17:56TORLuke Schenn: Interference2 min
- P3 1:00TORRyan O'Reilly: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:32MTLRafael Harvey-Pinard: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 6:01MTLDenis Gurianov: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 11:21TORMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:21TORWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21TORWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:21MTLJoel Edmundson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:21MTLJoel Edmundson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:59MTLNick Suzuki: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Suzuki won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Hoffman – Tierney – Pitlick6:04
xG 0.05–0.31 (13%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Evans – Pezzetta – Ylonen5:38
xG 0.01–0.27 (3%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Armia – Suzuki – Harvey-Pinard7:59
xG 0.26–0.57 (31%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Gallagher – Drouin – Gurianov11:16
xG 0.14–0.49 (22%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Kovacevic8:34
xG 0.29–0.34 (47%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Schueneman2:19
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Wideman – Matheson3:31
xG 0.01–0.16 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Tavares – Nylander8:23
xG 1.45–0.15 (90%)attempts 16–7goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews9:33
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Simmonds – Kerfoot – Acciari6:10
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lafferty – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:09
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson12:02
xG 1.19–0.16 (88%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Giordano – Liljegren10:23
xG 1.25–0.24 (84%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Holl – McCabe13:09
xG 0.84–0.22 (80%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).