Sat, Apr 8, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Nashville Predators 0, Winnipeg Jets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 05 | 015 | 028 |
| WPG | 07 | 120 | 111 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:06WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 1:36WPGNeal PionkAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:20NSHCody Glass: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:44WPGDylan DeMelo: Boarding2 min
- P1 12:47NSHKiefer Sherwood: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:36NSHColton Sissons: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSanford – Glass – Tomasino11:23
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- Jankowski – McCarron – Afanasyev6:34
xG 0.10–0.39 (21%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Sissons – Trenin – Asplund10:17
xG 0.02–0.32 (7%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista9:31
xG 0.35–0.85 (29%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Livingstone2:08
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Barrie – Livingstone9:23
xG 0.42–0.66 (39%)attempts 5–20goals 0–1
- McDonagh – Fabbro16:10
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Dubois13:49
xG 0.99–0.18 (85%)attempts 20–5goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:49
xG 0.58–0.12 (83%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Namestnikov – Ehlers9:46
xG 0.47–0.10 (83%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Barron4:20
xG 0.01–0.15 (5%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:37
xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 25–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – Pionk12:55
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Morrissey – Pionk3:17
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).