Sat, Apr 8, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 27 | 110 | 211 | 528 |
| DET | 07 | 18 | 05 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25PITAlex NylanderAssists: Mikael Granlund, Jeff Carter · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 19:57PITSidney CrosbyGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:16PITDanton HeinenAssists: Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–0
- P2 11:58DETPius SuterAssists: Andrew Copp, Lucas Raymond · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 3:01PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 13:00PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Jason Zucker · Poke, 0.10 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:46DETRobert Hagg: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:46PITAlex Nylander: Holding2 min
- P2 12:53DETJoseph Veleno: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:21DETRobert Hagg: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:34PITBryan Rust: Interference2 min
- P3 5:08DETAlex Chiasson: Interference2 min
- P3 13:40PITJan Rutta: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Copp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:06
xG 0.31–0.10 (76%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Carter – Archibald – Heinen7:13
xG 0.21–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Granlund – Nylander – Poehling8:20
xG 0.20–0.21 (48%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell9:11
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFriedman – Rutta11:34
xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Petry – Joseph15:22
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:37
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Larkin10:49
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Erne – Veleno6:13
xG 0.18–0.21 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Copp – Suter – Raymond9:43
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Czarnik – Luff – Berggren8:08
xG 0.10–0.62 (14%)attempts 5–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Hagg12:41
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Walman – Seider13:21
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Edvinsson12:35
xG 0.27–0.52 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).