Sat, Apr 8, 2023·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Vegas Golden Knights 1, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 19 | 06 | 04 | 01 | 0 | 120 |
| DAL | 09 | 110 | 05 | 01 | 1 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:21VGKBrett HowdenAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Ben Hutton · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 12:59DALJoel KivirantaAssists: Radek Faksa, Thomas Harley · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Robertson stopped
- 2. VGK Pavel Dorofeyev stopped
- 3. DAL Roope Hintz scored
- 4. VGK Jonathan Marchessault stopped
- 5. DAL Joe Pavelski stopped
- 6. VGK Paul Cotter stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:02DALMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:22VGKBrett Howden: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:39VGKJonathan Marchessault: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:13DALMiro Heiskanen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Howden won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMarchessault – Roy – Dorofeyev11:06
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Kessel – Stephenson – Barbashev9:25
xG 0.17–0.17 (51%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio9:56
xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Kolesar – Howden – Cotter9:35
xG 0.10–0.62 (14%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Hague4:16
xG 0.36–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo18:27
xG 0.80–0.58 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Hutton – Hague12:42
xG 0.47–0.50 (48%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Dadonov – Johnston10:04
xG 0.58–0.17 (78%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Seguin – Domi – Dellandrea10:06
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 15–3goals 0–1
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta6:59
xG 0.29–0.58 (33%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Pavelski – Hintz – Robertson14:14
xG 0.09–0.55 (14%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHeiskanen – Harley2:01
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Heiskanen18:49
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 22–14goals 0–0
- Miller – Harley11:45
xG 0.18–0.16 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).