Sun, Apr 9, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Boston Bruins 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 113 | 211 | 210 | 534 |
| PHI | 110 | 114 | 113 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47BOSCharlie CoyleAssists: Connor Carrick · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 1:04PHIWade AllisonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 2:04BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Connor Clifton, Jakub Zboril · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 7:31BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.14 xG3–1
- P2 13:58PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Owen Tippett · Snap, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 0:39BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Hampus Lindholm · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 9:06PHIOwen TippettAssists: Joel Farabee, Noah Cates · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–3
- P3 16:56BOSPavel ZachaAssists: David Pastrnak, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 4:40BOSJakub Lauko: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 10:29BOSJakub Zboril: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:51BOSTyler Bertuzzi: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:12PHITravis Konecny: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 5:10BOSCharlie Coyle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:23PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:23BOSA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestMarchand – Coyle – DeBrusk12:20
xG 0.76–0.15 (83%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Bertuzzi – Pastrnak – Zacha12:03
xG 0.94–0.76 (55%)attempts 19–11goals 4–1
- Hathaway – Nosek – Frederic2:05
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Frederic – Lettieri – Lauko6:54
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindholm – Carlo14:32
xG 0.79–0.47 (63%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carrick12:32
xG 0.33–0.23 (60%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Lindholm – Clifton2:01
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestTippett – Cates – Farabee3:51
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 4–6goals 2–2
- van Riemsdyk – Hayes – Laughton9:40
xG 0.22–0.11 (68%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Lemieux – Laczynski3:33
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Konecny – Allison – Frost4:50
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Sanheim10:45
xG 1.03–0.33 (76%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Provorov5:40
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Braun – York7:21
xG 0.22–0.08 (74%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).