Sun, Apr 9, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 5, Anaheim Ducks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 17 | 117 | 218 | 14 | 546 |
| ANA | 09 | 28 | 26 | 00 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:15COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Erik Johnson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 13:58COLMikko RantanenAssists: Samuel Girard, Devon Toews · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 15:15ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Trevor Zegras, Ryan Strome · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 18:09ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Cam Fowler · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 5:18ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Troy Terry, Kevin Shattenkirk · Snap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P3 7:25ANABrett LeasonAssists: Derek Grant, Jayson Megna · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 12:09COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 15:28COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Valeri Nichushkin · Slap, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 4:15COLNathan MacKinnonPPGWGAssists: Devon Toews, Mikko Rantanen · Slap, 0.13 xG5–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:14COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:33COLAndrew Cogliano: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:39ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:57ANANathan Beaulieu: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:12ANADerek Grant: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 2:49COLJ.T. Compher: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:40ANATrevor Zegras: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 13:07ANAMax Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:02ANADerek Grant: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 3:53ANAFrank Vatrano: Interference2 min · PPG
- OT 4:15ANAFrank Vatrano: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lundeström won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Nichushkin – Malgin6:42
xG 0.73–0.20 (78%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues13:01
xG 0.58–0.16 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Eller – Newhook – Meyers4:26
xG 0.31–0.03 (90%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Nieto – O'Connor5:51
xG 0.27–0.22 (54%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunt – Girard2:13
xG 0.42–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Johnson – Johnson12:35
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Johnson – Hunt3:15
xG 0.30–0.17 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Silfverberg – Jones – Lundeström7:33
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Henrique – Terry – McTavish9:57
xG 0.36–0.52 (41%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Grant – Megna – Leason6:55
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Zegras10:42
xG 0.33–1.00 (25%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Beaulieu – Helleson11:33
xG 0.46–0.72 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – White12:10
xG 0.25–0.58 (30%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Fowler – Benoit16:32
xG 0.34–0.89 (28%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).