Mon, Apr 10, 2023·Madison Square Garden, New York
Buffalo Sabres 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 114 | 012 | 17 | 06 | 2 | 339 |
| NYR | 04 | 213 | 011 | 00 | 1 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:24BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Jack Quinn, Tyson Jost · Snap, 0.25 xG1–0
- P2 1:01NYRArtemi PanarinPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 11:12NYRArtemi PanarinAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko · Slap, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 8:13BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Alex Tuch · Snap, 0.21 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jack Quinn stopped
- 2. NYR Patrick Kane stopped
- 3. BUF Tage Thompson stopped
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. BUF Alex Tuch stopped
- 6. NYR Artemi Panarin stopped
- 7. BUF Owen Power scored
- 8. NYR Vladimir Tarasenko scored
- 9. BUF Casey Mittelstadt scored
- 10. NYR Kaapo Kakko stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:08NYRArtemi Panarin: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:32BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Holding2 min
- P1 19:07BUFTage Thompson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- OT 1:18NYRArtemi Panarin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGreenway – Thompson – Cozens11:13
xG 0.98–0.36 (73%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Jost – Quinn – Peterka5:09
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 5–4goals 1–1
- Skinner – Tuch – Mittelstadt14:08
xG 0.74–0.70 (51%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs9:53
xG 0.47–0.68 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin17:52
xG 1.51–0.89 (63%)attempts 13–16goals 2–0
- Stillman – Lyubushkin3:36
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Lyubushkin2:44
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestChytil – Kakko – Lafrenière11:38
xG 0.79–0.27 (74%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Goodrow – Vesey – Motte8:09
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Tarasenko – Trocheck – Panarin12:11
xG 0.64–0.91 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Kane – Kreider – Zibanejad12:55
xG 0.50–1.03 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMikkola – Schneider12:30
xG 1.25–0.93 (57%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Fox – Lindgren16:18
xG 0.93–0.87 (52%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mikkola3:35
xG 0.02–0.05 (25%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).