Mon, Apr 10, 2023·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 18 | 112 | 229 |
| OTT | 210 | 012 | 110 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:51OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 17:26OTTTim StützleAssists: Claude Giroux, Brady Tkachuk · Snap, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 15:30CARBrett PesceAssists: Martin Necas, Brady Skjei · Snap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 2:23CARBrent BurnsPPAssists: Seth Jarvis, Martin Necas · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 9:37OTTClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Shane Pinto, Erik Brannstrom · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:28OTTArtem Zub: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 9:02CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:18CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:49OTTJulien Gauthier: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:58CARJordan Martinook: Boarding2 min
- P2 14:25OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:25CARJack Drury: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:36CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:17OTTTim Stützle: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:03OTTBrady Tkachuk: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 8:18OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:23CARStefan Noesen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:23CARStefan Noesen: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kastelic won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook3:40
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stepan – Noesen – Drury3:13
xG 0.10–0.05 (68%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Aho – Jarvis2:04
xG 0.00–0.01 (26%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Puljujarvi5:05
xG 0.10–0.21 (33%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chatfield10:16
xG 0.25–0.16 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce10:57
xG 0.29–0.60 (33%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Burns – Slavin12:00
xG 0.19–0.75 (21%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Tkachuk – Stützle8:50
xG 0.58–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Brown – Joseph – Kastelic6:05
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- DeBrincat – Batherson – Pinto7:40
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Gauthier – Gambrell – Sokolov2:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub11:09
xG 0.74–0.19 (79%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Bernard-Docker – Kleven6:52
xG 0.18–0.10 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Holden – Brannstrom10:16
xG 0.46–0.42 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).