Mon, Apr 10, 2023·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
San Jose Sharks 2, Winnipeg Jets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 15 | 09 | 17 | 221 |
| WPG | 314 | 010 | 39 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:20SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Jacob Peterson, Logan Couture · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 1:11WPGPierre-Luc DuboisPPAssists: Mark Scheifele, Nikolaj Ehlers · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 7:14WPGAdam LowryAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 14:26WPGDylan DeMeloGWGAssists: Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 0:16WPGMason AppletonAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Adam Lowry · Slap, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 3:42SJSErik KarlssonPPAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–4
- P3 5:48WPGJosh MorrisseyAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Mason Appleton · Slap, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 7:35WPGMark ScheifelePPAssists: Kyle Connor, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.15 xG2–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:37SJSKevin Labanc: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:59WPGKyle Connor: Holding2 min
- P3 3:17WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 7:29SJSJacob Peterson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 8:49WPGDylan Samberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:15WPGBlake Wheeler: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lowry won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestLabanc – Lorentz – Bordeleau2:18
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Svechnikov – Sturm – Raska3:07
xG 0.11–0.13 (44%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Labanc – Gregor – Robins6:20
xG 0.04–0.42 (9%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Gregor – Zetterlund – Sturm3:23
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Karlsson – Thrun13:19
xG 0.35–0.92 (28%)attempts 8–14goals 1–2
- Benning – Ferraro16:08
xG 0.25–1.05 (19%)attempts 6–20goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Knyzhov15:37
xG 0.49–1.40 (26%)attempts 11–23goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestNiederreiter – Lowry – Appleton9:59
xG 1.65–0.23 (88%)attempts 22–3goals 3–1
- Scheifele – Connor – Dubois14:33
xG 1.30–0.35 (79%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Maenalanen – Stenlund – Barron7:16
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Namestnikov – Ehlers10:49
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Samberg10:40
xG 1.32–0.21 (86%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey17:46
xG 1.18–0.49 (70%)attempts 22–12goals 3–0
- Dillon – Pionk17:08
xG 0.81–0.31 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).