Mon, Apr 10, 2023·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Dallas Stars 6, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 36 | 39 | 07 | 622 |
| DET | 09 | 14 | 07 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:53DALRoope HintzAssists: Thomas Harley, Jason Robertson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 7:59DALEsa LindellGWGAssists: Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 12:10DALTy DellandreaAssists: Max Domi, Tyler Seguin · Snap, 0.18 xG3–0
- P2 0:55DALJason RobertsonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Miro Heiskanen · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–0
- P2 3:37DALJoe PavelskiAssists: Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz · Tip-in, 0.05 xG5–0
- P2 14:19DALJamie BennAssists: Colin Miller, Wyatt Johnston · Deflected, 0.06 xG6–0
- P2 16:50DETDavid PerronAssists: Dylan Larkin · Wrist, 0.03 xG6–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:45DALJamie Benn: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:15DETTaro Hirose: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 17:27DETDavid Perron: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:27DALJani Hakanpää: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:27DETDavid Perron: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:45DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:41DALJoel Kiviranta: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Czarnik
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSeguin – Domi – Dellandrea9:08
xG 0.49–0.05 (91%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston9:48
xG 0.23–0.16 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Glendening – Faksa – Kiviranta8:34
xG 0.13–0.11 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Seguin – Faksa – Domi2:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Heiskanen16:16
xG 0.66–0.52 (56%)attempts 16–11goals 2–0
- Miller – Harley14:28
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Suter – Miller2:00
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Kubalik – Larkin5:10
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Kubalik – Czarnik – Luff4:41
xG 0.10–0.07 (58%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Veleno – Hirose2:43
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Czarnik – Luff – Berggren5:36
xG 0.02–0.09 (20%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Seider11:25
xG 0.35–0.19 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 1–3
- Maatta – Lindstrom4:14
xG 0.06–0.02 (77%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Chiarot – Maatta13:51
xG 0.15–0.37 (28%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).