Mon, Apr 10, 2023·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 18 | 05 | 39 | 422 |
| CHI | 111 | 122 | 09 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:32MINMatt BoldyAssists: Marcus Johansson, Calen Addison · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 18:11CHIJoey AndersonAssists: Boris Katchouk · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 2:23CHIAnders BjorkAssists: Buddy Robinson, Andreas Athanasiou · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 14:00MINMarcus JohanssonSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 16:47MINMarcus JohanssonGWGAssists: Matt Boldy · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 18:59MINGustav NyquistENAssists: Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.63 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P3 3:38CHIAnders Bjork: Holding2 min
- P3 7:44MINBrandon Duhaime: Holding2 min
- P3 11:27CHIBuddy Robinson: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:20MINMarcus Foligno: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:20CHIAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:20MINMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:20MINMarcus Foligno: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:30MINJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Gaudreau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Johansson – Gaudreau – Boldy13:15
xG 0.67–0.70 (49%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Hartman – Petan – Rossi8:59
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar9:59
xG 0.15–0.37 (28%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Foligno – Steel8:05
xG 0.06–0.46 (12%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Faber14:58
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg2:28
xG 0.03–0.03 (51%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber2:29
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Robinson – Bjork10:09
xG 0.55–0.04 (94%)attempts 21–3goals 1–0
- Khaira – Anderson – Katchouk10:17
xG 0.36–0.06 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Wagner – Entwistle – Johnson8:44
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Toews – Johnson – Dickinson11:34
xG 0.54–0.45 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMurphy – Kaiser14:15
xG 0.72–0.19 (79%)attempts 23–12goals 0–0
- Jones – Jones15:50
xG 0.74–0.30 (71%)attempts 24–10goals 1–0
- Englund – Zaitsev12:29
xG 0.52–0.50 (51%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).