Tue, Apr 11, 2023·Prudential Center, Newark
Buffalo Sabres 2, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 115 | 113 | 238 |
| NJD | 110 | 29 | 311 | 630 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:42NJDJesper BoqvistAssists: Miles Wood, Nathan Bastian · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 1:06NJDJonas SiegenthalerAssists: Nico Hischier, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 6:55BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Alex Tuch · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:28NJDMiles WoodGWGAssists: Nathan Bastian, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 7:10NJDTomas TatarAssists: Damon Severson, Kevin Bahl · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P3 13:15BUFMattias SamuelssonAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 17:28NJDTomas TatarENAssists: Nathan Bastian, Timo Meier · Snap, 0.77 xG2–5
- P3 18:15NJDJack HughesENAssists: Jesper Bratt, Vitek Vanecek · Snap, 0.75 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:32NJDRyan Graves: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:11BUFRasmus Dahlin: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:20BUFPeyton Krebs: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:56NJDOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hughes won the faceoff against Mittelstadt
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestJost – Quinn – Peterka8:47
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Greenway – Thompson – Cozens10:19
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Krebs – Quinn – Peterka2:46
xG 0.23–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs7:18
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin17:25
xG 1.34–0.57 (70%)attempts 26–17goals 1–0
- Jokiharju – Power16:51
xG 0.89–0.71 (56%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Bryson – Lyubushkin4:48
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 1–1
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes11:01
xG 1.10–0.21 (84%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Wood – Bastian – Hischier2:47
xG 0.16–0.16 (49%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Meier – Boqvist – Sharangovich10:24
xG 0.01–0.75 (1%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Tatar – Hischier – Mercer10:03
xG 0.40–1.18 (25%)attempts 9–16goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – Bahl4:05
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Siegenthaler2:37
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Graves – Hughes2:09
xG 0.01–0.00 (88%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).