Tue, Apr 11, 2023·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 013 | 16 | 48 | 527 |
| PIT | 09 | 016 | 215 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:04CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Austin Wagner, Wyatt Kaiser · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 5:28PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 10:22CHIBuddy RobinsonAssists: Caleb Jones, Anders Bjork · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 10:48CHIAndreas AthanasiouGWGAssists: Anders Bjork, Buddy Robinson · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 18:36CHITyler JohnsonENAssists: Seth Jones, Jason Dickinson · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
- P3 19:22PITDanton HeinenAssists: Jeff Petry, Josh Archibald · Wrist, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 19:37CHIMacKenzie EntwistleENAssists: Nikita Zaitsev, Andreas Englund · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:47PITDmitry Kulikov: Interference2 min
- P1 12:24CHIIan Mitchell: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:57CHIJonathan Toews: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:45PITAlex Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:40CHICaleb Jones: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:56CHICaleb Jones: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 15:49CHIWyatt Kaiser: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Athanasiou won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAthanasiou – Robinson – Bjork7:12
xG 0.69–0.25 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 2–0
- Toews – Johnson – Dickinson9:04
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Anderson – Katchouk4:16
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Wagner – Entwistle – Johnson6:30
xG 0.14–0.25 (36%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Jones14:31
xG 0.97–0.32 (75%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
- Englund – Zaitsev7:19
xG 0.19–0.25 (44%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Englund – Mitchell3:16
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel11:05
xG 0.64–0.33 (66%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Archibald – Heinen4:35
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 9–2goals 1–1
- Granlund – Nylander – Poehling5:28
xG 0.13–0.30 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Zucker – Rakell10:56
xG 0.45–0.80 (36%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Joseph13:37
xG 0.98–0.69 (59%)attempts 24–7goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Rutta9:14
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Letang – Dumoulin14:29
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).