Tue, Apr 11, 2023·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 29 | 08 | 112 | 02 | 331 |
| PHI | 215 | 116 | 06 | 12 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:47CBJLiam FoudyAssists: Carson Meyer, Tim Berni · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 12:43CBJTrey Fix-WolanskyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 14:59PHIJoel FarabeeAssists: Travis Konecny, Morgan Frost · Snap, 0.19 xG2–1
- P1 15:33PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Ivan Provorov, Scott Laughton · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 0:47PHIOwen TippettPPAssists: Noah Cates, Rasmus Ristolainen · Snap, 0.25 xG2–3
- P3 5:50CBJSean KuralyPPAssists: Jake Christiansen, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 4:44PHIOwen TippettGWGAssists: Ivan Provorov, Cam York · Snap, 0.30 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 17:07CBJJosh Dunne: Holding2 min
- P1 17:07PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:54CBJTim Berni: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:50CBJKent Johnson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 19:06PHITravis Konecny: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:27PHIAdam Ginning: Holding2 min
- P3 3:34CBJKirill Marchenko: Interference2 min
- P3 4:20PHICam York: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:06CBJCarson Meyer: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Kuraly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- Roslovic – Fix-Wolansky – Johnson5:25
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Roslovic – Marchenko2:12
xG 0.04–0.07 (35%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Kuraly – Fix-Wolansky3:00
xG 0.00–0.12 (3%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Kuraly – Marchenko6:30
xG 0.22–0.33 (39%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Peeke – Bayreuther15:25
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
- Christiansen – Jiricek13:22
xG 0.35–0.47 (43%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Boqvist – Berni13:21
xG 0.34–0.76 (31%)attempts 7–19goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestKonecny – Frost – Farabee8:25
xG 0.50–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Hayes – Tippett – Cates8:00
xG 0.28–0.26 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Laughton – Allison7:12
xG 0.16–0.27 (38%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Lemieux – Laczynski6:37
xG 0.07–0.24 (23%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Ginning13:42
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Sanheim13:03
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Provorov – York16:56
xG 0.30–0.41 (42%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).