Tue, Apr 11, 2023·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 19 | 111 | 227 |
| BOS | 012 | 212 | 320 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:32BOSBrad MarchandPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 14:20BOSTyler BertuzziPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–2
- P2 15:27WSHNick JensenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 4:13BOSTomas NosekGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 7:13WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Dylan Strome, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 7:49BOSGarnet HathawayAssists: Tomas Nosek, Charlie McAvoy · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 18:11BOSJake DeBruskENAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:07BOSHampus Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:36WSHMatt Irwin: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:09WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:32BOSDmitry Orlov: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Sheary – Strome12:54
xG 0.98–0.38 (72%)attempts 18–17goals 1–0
- Malenstyn – Borgstrom – Protas4:37
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Backstrom – Smith – Snively12:47
xG 0.52–0.62 (45%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
- Kuznetsov – Milano – Aube-Kubel7:02
xG 0.05–0.70 (7%)attempts 1–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Irwin – Alexeyev13:28
xG 0.45–0.51 (46%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Carlson – Sandin7:12
xG 0.28–0.35 (44%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Carlson – Fehérváry11:49
xG 0.39–0.55 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk9:51
xG 0.94–0.30 (76%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Pastrnak – Zacha12:59
xG 0.93–0.41 (69%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Coyle – Hall – Frederic14:50
xG 0.57–0.46 (55%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Nosek – Greer9:39
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – McAvoy17:54
xG 1.42–0.53 (73%)attempts 29–18goals 1–1
- Lindholm – Carlo12:35
xG 0.61–0.06 (91%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Orlov – Clifton2:11
xG 0.06–0.15 (29%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).