Tue, Apr 11, 2023·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Winnipeg Jets 3, Minnesota Wild 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 24 | 011 | 15 | 320 |
| MIN | 012 | 04 | 118 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:53WPGAdam LowryAssists: Nino Niederreiter, Josh Morrissey · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 13:10WPGMark ScheifeleGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 1:59MINKirill KaprizovPPAssists: John Klingberg, Marcus Johansson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 14:06WPGMason AppletonAssists: Morgan Barron, Kevin Stenlund · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
Penalties (17)
- P1 10:11WPGBlake Wheeler: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:13WPGDylan DeMelo: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:20WPGSaku Maenalanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:47MINMarco Rossi: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:26MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:24WPGAdam Lowry: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:31MINRyan Hartman: Interference2 min
- P3 11:31WPGVladislav Namestnikov: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:31MINRyan Hartman: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:24WPGNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:24MINRyan Reaves: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:13WPGNeal Pionk: Cross checking5 min
- P3 19:32MINRyan Hartman: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:32WPGBrenden Dillon: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:34MINRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:34WPGAdam Lowry: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:34MINMarcus Foligno: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestMaenalanen – Stenlund – Barron3:07
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Namestnikov – Ehlers7:48
xG 0.15–0.21 (41%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Dubois11:29
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton8:48
xG 0.25–0.44 (36%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Morrissey2:03
xG 0.42–0.10 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey14:20
xG 0.51–0.27 (66%)attempts 19–8goals 1–0
- Schmidt – Samberg7:48
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Gaudreau – Boldy6:59
xG 0.37–0.16 (70%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Steel – Rossi2:10
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Reaves – Duhaime – Dewar8:14
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Hartman – Kaprizov7:44
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Middleton12:07
xG 0.45–0.08 (85%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Merrill – Klingberg11:43
xG 0.84–0.62 (57%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Brodin – Dumba12:48
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).