Tue, Apr 11, 2023·Ball Arena, Denver
Edmonton Oilers 2, Colorado Avalanche 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 18 | 017 | 012 | 13 | 240 |
| COL | 110 | 07 | 013 | 00 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:52COLBen MeyersUnassisted · Other, 1.00 xG0–1
- P1 5:28EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Ryan McLeod, Warren Foegele · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 1:50EDMEvan BouchardPPGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 2:30EDMKlim Kostin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:16COLBowen Byram: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:46COLDevon Toews: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 4:40EDMRyan McLeod: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:53EDMEvander Kane: High sticking2 min
- OT 1:09COLBowen Byram: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestFoegele – Ryan – McLeod7:24
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Kane – Draisaitl – Yamamoto10:46
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid9:58
xG 0.92–0.76 (55%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Janmark – Kostin5:07
xG 0.15–1.25 (11%)attempts 2–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:13
xG 1.13–0.61 (65%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
- Nurse – Desharnais14:13
xG 0.24–0.23 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Kulak – Broberg9:37
xG 0.40–1.34 (23%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestEller – Newhook – Meyers6:29
xG 1.17–0.08 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues14:33
xG 0.93–0.89 (51%)attempts 13–19goals 0–0
- Compher – Nichushkin – Malgin9:35
xG 0.10–0.24 (29%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Nieto – O'Connor4:39
xG 0.14–0.29 (32%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Byram12:11
xG 1.20–0.45 (73%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard13:21
xG 0.67–0.54 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Johnson – Byram2:08
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).