Tue, Apr 11, 2023·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Seattle Kraken 1, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 18 | 09 | 04 | 121 |
| VGK | 110 | 216 | 111 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37VGKMichael AmadioAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 9:06SEAYanni GourdeAssists: Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 2:00VGKMichael AmadioGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, William Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 14:48VGKReilly SmithAssists: Michael Amadio, Nicolas Hague · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–3
- P3 3:23VGKJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.24 xG1–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 16:38VGKPhil Kessel: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:21SEAOliver Bjorkstrand: Holding2 min
- P3 3:05SEAWill Borgen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 3:05SEAJesper Froden: Hooking2 min
- P3 6:15VGKBrayden Pachal: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Wennberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestDonato – Tanev – Froden6:24
xG 0.73–0.10 (88%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Wennberg – Sprong10:41
xG 0.34–0.20 (64%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Eberle – McCann – Beniers9:53
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Gourde – Bjorkstrand – Tolvanen11:04
xG 0.25–1.83 (12%)attempts 10–23goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Borgen14:26
xG 0.87–0.77 (53%)attempts 14–18goals 1–2
- Megna – Fleury15:20
xG 0.48–0.41 (54%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:31
xG 0.33–1.88 (15%)attempts 13–23goals 0–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestKessel – Stephenson – Barbashev11:34
xG 1.26–0.37 (77%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Amadio10:40
xG 0.84–0.19 (82%)attempts 13–7goals 3–0
- Blueger – Kolesar – Howden10:11
xG 0.69–0.41 (63%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Roy – Dorofeyev11:08
xG 0.12–0.72 (15%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Pachal16:13
xG 0.98–0.41 (70%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Martinez – Pietrangelo13:26
xG 0.26–0.35 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
- Hutton – Hague16:14
xG 0.65–0.99 (40%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).