Tue, Apr 11, 2023·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vancouver Canucks 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 213 | 08 | 115 | 336 |
| ANA | 112 | 112 | 011 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:14VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Elias Pettersson, J.T. Miller · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 16:12VANAndrei KuzmenkoPPAssists: Akito Hirose, Thatcher Demko · Snap, 0.23 xG2–0
- P1 17:20ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Cam Fowler, Trevor Zegras · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 15:32ANADrew HellesonAssists: Troy Terry, Trevor Zegras · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 1:26VANJ.T. MillerGWGAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Elias Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 11:54ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:18ANATrevor Zegras: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 16:33VANKyle Burroughs: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:40ANAMason McTavish: Holding2 min
- P2 5:01VANAkito Hirose: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:25ANAMax Jones: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:29VANTyler Myers: Holding2 min
- P3 4:54VANAidan McDonough: Holding2 min
- P3 17:46VANAkito Hirose: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McTavish won the faceoff against Aman
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Di Giuseppe – Pettersson8:53
xG 0.95–0.04 (96%)attempts 19–5goals 1–0
- Beauvillier – Studnicka – McDonough8:51
xG 0.36–0.22 (61%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Garland – Dries – Kuzmenko8:14
xG 0.34–0.21 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Joshua – Boeser – Aman8:51
xG 0.23–0.60 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurroughs – Hughes10:53
xG 0.79–0.22 (78%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Bear – McWard11:55
xG 0.74–0.32 (70%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Myers – Hirose9:47
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestJones – Lundeström – Nesterenko8:10
xG 0.88–0.45 (66%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – McTavish4:55
xG 0.30–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Terry – Groulx2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Grant – Silfverberg – Groulx4:26
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Helleson11:24
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Fowler2:35
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Shattenkirk – LaCombe14:11
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).