Thu, Apr 13, 2023·Centre Bell, Montreal
Boston Bruins 5, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 27 | 15 | 29 | 521 |
| MTL | 18 | 213 | 113 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:27MTLLucas CondottaAssists: Michael Pezzetta, Joel Teasdale · Bat, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 9:19BOSTrent FredericAssists: Connor Clifton, David Pastrnak · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P1 14:40BOSJake DeBruskAssists: Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy · Snap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 7:16MTLNick SuzukiAssists: Joel Edmundson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–2
- P2 8:24MTLMichael PezzettaAssists: Rem Pitlick, Chris Tierney · Snap, 0.27 xG2–3
- P2 13:58BOSDmitry OrlovAssists: Jakub Lauko · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 1:09MTLJustin BarronSHAssists: Jake Evans, Rem Pitlick · Slap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 8:48BOSCharlie CoyleUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–4
- P3 11:00BOSDavid PastrnakGWGAssists: Dmitry Orlov, Tyler Bertuzzi · Snap, 0.23 xG5–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:45BOSJeremy Swayman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:05MTLJustin Barron: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:59MTLRem Pitlick: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:10MTLJoel Edmundson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:10MTLChris Wideman: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:46BOSConnor Clifton: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:23BOSJake DeBrusk: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:13MTLRem Pitlick: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:03MTLMichael Pezzetta: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:45MTLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:45BOSA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P3 15:55MTLBrendan Gallagher: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:55BOSDmitry Orlov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – DeBrusk2:24
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Hathaway – Greer – Frederic7:17
xG 0.31–0.16 (66%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Coyle – Hall – Lauko3:49
xG 0.04–0.25 (13%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Bertuzzi – Pastrnak – Zacha7:20
xG 0.49–0.84 (37%)attempts 9–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – McAvoy9:47
xG 0.89–0.17 (84%)attempts 16–4goals 4–0
- Orlov – Clifton2:36
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Carlo10:44
xG 0.70–0.52 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPezzetta – Teasdale – Condotta9:05
xG 0.95–0.57 (62%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Gallagher – Evans – Pitlick9:05
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–2
- Armia – Drouin – Suzuki8:42
xG 0.30–0.59 (34%)attempts 9–6goals 0–2
- Tierney – Gurianov – Farrell7:53
xG 0.18–0.50 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllard – Kovacevic4:53
xG 0.48–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Allard – Barron5:41
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Kovacevic – Barron4:30
xG 0.14–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).