Thu, Apr 13, 2023·FLA Live Arena, Sunrise
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Florida Panthers 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 111 | 113 | 412 | 636 |
| FLA | 010 | 05 | 419 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:21CARBrent BurnsAssists: Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis · Slap, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 1:12CARJesperi KotkaniemiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 1:14FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Sam Reinhart, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 3:33FLARyan LombergAssists: Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 6:07CARBrent BurnsAssists: Jack Drury · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–2
- P3 6:28CARJesper FastAssists: Jordan Staal, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–2
- P3 17:20CARShayne GostisbehereENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG5–2
- P3 17:58FLAAnthony DuclairAssists: Eric Staal, Radko Gudas · Slap, 0.05 xG5–3
- P3 18:36FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.18 xG5–4
- P3 19:00CARSebastian AhoENAssists: Seth Jarvis · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:07FLABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:56CARJordan Staal: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:04FLASam Reinhart: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:10FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Cross checking2 min
- P3 13:12FLARyan Lomberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:15CARShayne Gostisbehere: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:50CARStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50FLAMatthew Tkachuk: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:50FLABrandon Montour: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Fast – Martinook10:43
xG 1.29–0.37 (78%)attempts 20–5goals 1–1
- Stastny – Puljujarvi – Drury5:47
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Noesen – Necas – Kotkaniemi9:31
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 9–12goals 1–2
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis10:38
xG 0.38–0.66 (37%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Chatfield10:41
xG 1.21–0.23 (84%)attempts 24–10goals 1–1
- Burns – Slavin15:05
xG 0.94–0.74 (56%)attempts 20–17goals 2–0
- Skjei – Pesce15:25
xG 0.82–0.80 (51%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBarkov – Reinhart – Luostarinen7:34
xG 0.70–0.32 (68%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Verhaeghe – Tkachuk – Lundell7:35
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Cousins – White – Smith3:18
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Tkachuk – Luostarinen – Lundell5:27
xG 0.10–0.28 (27%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – Forsling2:43
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Montour – Mahura2:19
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Montour12:08
xG 0.78–0.84 (48%)attempts 13–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).